Web Survey Bibliography
Relevance and research question:
Self-selected survey participants typically differ from the general population with regard to demographic variables that are important for voting behaviour. For example, elderly persons and persons with a low educational level are usually underrepresented. To forecast the result of elections based on such non-probability samples, it is therefore necessary to statistically adjust for selection bias. We investigated whether the validity of an election forecast can be improved using propensity scores which rely on demographic characteristics to model the propensity to participate in web surveys.
Methods and data:
In the week prior to the 2009 German federal election to the Bundestag/Lower House of the Parliament, we surveyed a large self-selected sample of potential voters. Recording several demographic variables that are presumably relevant for political preferences, we also asked the participants to indicate their voting intention in the upcoming election. We then computed predictions for the outcome of the election using propensity score adjustments based on official Mikrozensus data. We compared these predictions with the outcome of the election, and also tested whether propensity adjusted Web-based convenience samples allow for a prediction that is competitive with probability sample-based benchmark estimates.
We found that propensity score adjustments were able to considerably improve the predictive validity of an Internet-based survey of a non-random sample of potential voters, leading to a much better forecast of the election outcome. Our results thus document the usefulness of propensity scores to improve the validity of election forecasts. However, we also noted several limitations of the approach.
Propensity score adjustments are increasingly being used to control for selection bias, but there are few opportunities to validate this approach against external criteria. Forecasting the outcome of an election is a rare but important exception, because adjusted and unadjusted predictions can be directly compared to an election’s official result.
Conference Homepage (abstract)
Web Survey Bibliography - 2010 (406)
- Investigating Data Quality in Cell Phone Surveying; 2010; Lavrakas, P. J., Tompson, T., Benford, R.
- Beyond the Usability Lab: Conducting Large-scale Online User Experience Studies; 2010; Albert, W., Tullis, T., Tedesco, D.
- Walking in Facebook: A Case Study of Unbiased Sampling of OSNs; 2010; Gjoka, M., Kurant, M., Butts, C. T., Markopoulou, A.
- Social Networking Sites: Evaluating and Investigating their use in Academic Research; 2010; Redmond, F.
- Update on the ARF’s Quality Enhancement Process (QeP); 2010; Pettit, R.
- Quality Matters – Now And Especially Tomorrow; 2010; Dedeker, K.
- Measuring selection bias introduced by routing; 2010; Porter, S., de Gaudemar, O., Kimura, M.
- Quantifying the Impact of Survey Design Parameters on Respondent Engagement and Data Quality; 2010; Suresh, N., Conklin, M.
- Using ad hoc measures for response styles: a cautionary note; 2010; de Beuckelaer, A.; Weijters, B.; Rutten, A.
- How Harmful are Survey Translations? A Test with Schwartz's Human Values Instrument; 2010; Davidov, E., de Beuckelaer, A.
- Elastic-R, a Google docs-like portal for data analysis in the Cloud ; 2010; Chine, K.
- Restructuring and innovations on the survey “capacity of collective tourist accommodation”...; 2010; Santoro, M. T., Staffieri, S.
- Managing the knowledge base - the DUVA system, from data entry to output tools; 2010; Then, R., Bangert, D.
- An Analyze of the Zero Price Effect on Online Business Performance - An Research Based on the Mobile...; 2010; Liu, Y., Yuan, P.
- Is there a future for “real” qualitative market research interviewing in the digital age...; 2010; McPhee, N.
- From clipboards to online research communities; 2010; Poynter, R., Cierpicki, S., Lorch, J., Zuo, B., Davis, C., Eddy, C.
- 3 screen measurement: Soccer World Cup 2010; 2010; Conry, S., Benezra, K., Singh, S.
- Can biomarkers be collected in an Internet survey? A pilot study in the LISS panel; 2010; Avendano, M., Mackenbach, J., Scherpenzeel, A.
- Dealing with Nonresponse in Survey Sampling: an Item Response Modeling Approach; 2010; Matei, A.
- Power, sample size, and optimal designs in social research; 2010; Moerbeek, M., van Breukelen, G. J. P.
- Codebook and explanatory note on the WageIndicator dataset ; 2010; Tijdens, K., van Zijl, S., Hughie-Williams, M., van Klaveren, M., Steinmetz, S.
- Modeling non-sampling errors and participation in Web surveys; 2010; Biffignandi, S.
- Perspectives on Web Survey Development: Views from Programmers, Content Specialists, and Survey Methodologists...; 2010; Downey, K.
- Using a Mixed-Mode Design to Survey Ethnic Minorities?; 2010; Feskens, R., Kappelhof, J.
- Blogosphere and Democracy in Portugal–Results of a Websurvey; 2010; Carvalho, T., Casanova, J. L.
- Recent Findings on Using Rich Media in Online Surveys; 2010; Malinoff, B., Henning, J.
- Digital, Social Moms: Using Social Media to Increase Respondent Engagement and Decrease Recruiting Costs...; 2010; Stemberg, C., Rimmer, L., Weinstein, D.
- From Buzz to Biz: Social Media Research for Results; 2010; Pettit, F. A.
- Archiving and Re-using Qualitative and Qualitative Longitudinal Data in Slovenia; 2010; Stebe, J., Hudales, J., Kragelj, B.
- Establishing a Qualitative Data Archive in Austria; 2010; Smioski, A.
- Methodological and Ethical Dilemmas of Archiving Qualitative Data; 2010; Kuula, A.
- Qualitative and Qualitative Longitudinal Resources in Europe; 2010; Bishop, L., Neale, B.
- The Rise of Survey Programming Automation as an Alternative to Outsourcing; 2010; Ahmed, A. S., Guyer, L.
- How is Emerging Technology/Web 2.0 Changing Gathering Consumer Feedback and the Delivery of Data? ; 2010; Price, K., Patel, N.
- Sexy Questions, Dangerous Results? - Exploring the Impact of Rich Media Question Formats in Online Survey...; 2010; Malinoff, B.
- Mobile Research: New Platform, New Thinking ; 2010; Johnson, A. J., Conry, S.
- Managing Quality in Large Multi-Country / Multi-Category / Multi-Modal Studies; 2010; Thompson, J.
- State of Technology in Market Research ; 2010; Coates, D.
- Mobile Research – The future’s in their hands: Exploring the Application of Digital Research...; 2010; Dodgson, S.
- Factorial Design on Survey Router Configuration Effect by Sample Source; 2010; Fawson, B., Johnson, E. P.
- Use of Faces in Surveys; 2010; Burdein, I.
- Participant Satisfaction and Panel Member Retention; 2010; Portner, A.
- Conditioning Effects in Online Communities; 2010; Cape, P. J.
- Sample Blending; 2010; Lorch, J., Cavallaro, K., van Ossenbruggen, R.
- Looking Beyond Quality Differences: How Do Consumer Buying Patterns Differ by Sample Source?; 2010; Baker-Prewitt, J.
- Predicting the Future with Social Media ; 2010; Asur, S., Huberman, B. A.
- From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series; 2010; O’Connor, B., Balasubramanyan, R,, Routledgex, B. R., Smith, N. A.
- News Platform Preference: Advancing the Effects of Age and Media Consumption on Political Participation...; 2010; Bachmann, I., Kaufhold, K., Lewis, S. C., de Zuniga, H. G.
- ReCal: Intercoder Reliability Calculation as a Web Service ; 2010; Freelon, D. G.
- Statistics Canada's Process Automation of On-line Survey Development and CATI Data Integration; 2010; Dubois, M.-A.