Relevance & Research Question: One of the most important trends in electoral behaviour is the loss of stability in recent years. That said, it becomes increasingly important to study (and hence observe) short-term effects. But tracking decision-making processes has always been a challenge to academia as well as market researchers, since neither our traditional theories nor our tools are specifically designed to examine such short term effects. To overcome this deficiency we will conduct an innovative study design in the run-up to the 2011 Baden-Württemberg state election. It combines panel elements with the general idea of a rolling cross-section survey, yielding rolling cross-section panel waves. The rolling-cross section part provides us with the opportunity to track developments in the course of the campaign on a day-by-day basis, while the panel gives insight into intra-individual decision-making process. Our contribution will focus on the design of the study, but will also include findings from the first wave of our study that will be fielded in November 2011.
Methods & Data: In the run-up to the 2011 Baden-Württemberg state election, we will conduct a five wave-panel. Respondents are recruited from YouGov’ access panel. The first wave (with n=4000) – providing a “pre-test” before the final phase of the campaign starts – will be fielded in November/December 2010. The following three waves will be conducted in the final six weeks before Election Day in order to get an extensive insight into the decision-making processes. Wave 5 will be a standard post-election wave.
Results: Since the GOR-Conference will take place when our study is still in progress, we will only be able to present first findings mainly from our first wave. However, we will focus on outlining the concept and innovations of our Rolling Cross-Section Panel Study.
Added Value: The paper presents a very innovative research study useful tools for academic and non-academic researchers that are interested in individual decision-making processes in future surveys.