Relevance & Research Question: One of the most important topics in recent electoral research is the ever increasing volatility and instability of public opinion and electoral behavior. This development poses serious challenges, as it becomes more and more important to track and explain these short-term movements. However, neither our traditional theories nor our research designs are designed to examine those short term effects. To overcome this shortcoming, we have employed an innovative survey design that combines panel elements with the general idea of a rolling cross-section survey, yielding rolling cross-section panel waves. The rolling-cross section part provides us with an opportunity to study fine-grained developments over times (on a daily basis), whereas the panel allows us to gain insight into intra-individual decision-making processes.
Methods & Data: In the context of the study “Wahlstudie Baden-Württemberg 2011” and its successor study “Volksabstimmung Stuttgart 21,” we were able to realize a large-scale online panel consisting of a total of nine panel-waves covering the period from November 2010 to December 2011. Five of those nine waves were designed as rolling panel waves to get an extensive insight into the decision-making processes in the run-up to the state election in Baden-Wurttemgerg on March 27, 2011 and the referendum on November 27, 2011. For each wave, we have at least 1900 respondents; hence we will be able to draw our conclusions based on approximately 25000 interviews in total.
Results: In the context of the lander election and the referendum, the design has proven to be very efficient and analytically valuable. In our contribution, we will outline the survey design detail, share hands-on experience in conducting such surveys with the audience and present some selected results that illustrate the potential of this unique data base.
Added Value: The paper introduces an innovative, useful tool for academic and non-academic researchers to examine individual decision-making processes in future surveys.