Web Survey Bibliography
Relevance and research question:
Self-selected survey participants typically differ from the general population with regard to demographic variables that are important for voting behaviour. For example, elderly persons and persons with a low educational level are usually underrepresented. To forecast the result of elections based on such non-probability samples, it is therefore necessary to statistically adjust for selection bias. We investigated whether the validity of an election forecast can be improved using propensity scores which rely on demographic characteristics to model the propensity to participate in web surveys.
Methods and data:
In the week prior to the 2009 German federal election to the Bundestag/Lower House of the Parliament, we surveyed a large self-selected sample of potential voters. Recording several demographic variables that are presumably relevant for political preferences, we also asked the participants to indicate their voting intention in the upcoming election. We then computed predictions for the outcome of the election using propensity score adjustments based on official Mikrozensus data. We compared these predictions with the outcome of the election, and also tested whether propensity adjusted Web-based convenience samples allow for a prediction that is competitive with probability sample-based benchmark estimates.
Results:
We found that propensity score adjustments were able to considerably improve the predictive validity of an Internet-based survey of a non-random sample of potential voters, leading to a much better forecast of the election outcome. Our results thus document the usefulness of propensity scores to improve the validity of election forecasts. However, we also noted several limitations of the approach.
Added value:
Propensity score adjustments are increasingly being used to control for selection bias, but there are few opportunities to validate this approach against external criteria. Forecasting the outcome of an election is a rare but important exception, because adjusted and unadjusted predictions can be directly compared to an election’s official result.
Conference Homepage (abstract)
Web survey bibliography - 2010 (251)
- Running experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk; 2010; Paolacci, G., Chandler, J., Ipeirotis, P. G.
- Making Good Use of Survey Paradata; 2010; Lynn, P., Nicolaas, G.
- Questionnaire Length, Fatigue Effects and Response Quality Revisited; 2010; Cape, P. J.
- Preventing Satisficing in Online Surveys: A “Kapcha” to Ensure Higher Quality Data...; 2010; Chandler, D., Kapelner, A.
- Game on; 2010; Ewing, T.
- Respondent Engagement: How Much Does it Matter?; 2010
- The Internet and Social Inequalities; 2010; Mannon, S.E.; Witte, J. C.
- Need to Improve Routine HIV Testing of U.S. Veterans in Care: Results of an Internet Survey; 2010; Valdiserri, R. O., Nazi, K., McInnes, D. K., Ross, D., Kinsinger, L.
- The Prevalence of Chronic Pain in United States Adults: Results of an Internet-Based Survey; 2010; Johannes, C. B., Le, T. K., Zhou, X., Johnston, J. A., Dworkin, R. H.
- Response Rates in Organizational Science, 1995–2008: A Meta-analytic Review and Guidelines for...; 2010; Anseel, F., Lievens, F., Schollaert, E., Choragwicka, B.
- Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations; 2010; Iacobucci, D., Churchill, G.A. Jr.
- Computer Assisted Interview Testing Tool (CTT) - a review of new features and how the tool has improved...; 2010; Stark, R., Gatward, R.
- Address-based Sampling Nets Success for KnowledgePanel® Recruitment and Sample Representation; 2010; DiSogra, C.
- A method of automated nonparametric content analysis for social science; 2010; Hopkins, D. J., King, G.
- Developing a web explicit research strategy theory in African universities: a cross-comparison of specific...; 2010; Kirigha, K. A., Neema-A.
- The use of paradata to monitor and manage survey data collection; 2010; Kreuter, F., Couper, M. P., Lyberg, L. E.
- Mitigating Online Survey Nonresponse Error In Aviation Research; 2010; Ison, D. C.
- Optimizing response rates in online surveys; 2010; Kaczmirek, L.
- The Decision Maker's Guide to Online Research; 2010
- Mixed-Method Approaches to Social Network Analysis; 2010; Edwards, G.
- Measuring Intent to Participate and Participation in the 2010 Census and Their Correlates and Trends...; 2010; Pasek, J., Krosnick, J. A.
- Nonresponse and Measurement Error in Mobile Phone Surveys ; 2010; Kennedy, C.
- Wordle; 2010; Feinberg, J.
- What it takes to be a top 100 website; 2010
- Total Survey Error: past, present, and future; 2010; Groves, R. M., Lyberg, L. E.
- There is an app for that! A review of smartphone apps for marketing research; 2010; Michelson, M.
- The who, what, and where of America: Understanding the American Community Survey; 2010; Gaquin, D. A.
- The weirdest people in the world?; 2010; Heine, S. J., Henrich, J., Norenzayan, A.
- The state of online research in the U.S.; 2010; Miller, J.
- The psychology or survey response. An ASA webinar; 2010; Tourangeau, R.
- The psychology of survey response, 2nd Edition; 2010; Tourangeau, R., Bradburn, N. M.
- The multidimensional integral business survey response model; 2010; Bavdaz, M.
- The impact of next and back buttons on time to complete and measurement reliability in computer-based...; 2010; Hays, R. D., Bode, R., Rothrock, N., Riley, W., Cella, D., Gershon, R.
- The Gallup Poll: Public opinion 2009; 2010; Gallup, A. M.
- Surveying cultures: Discovering shared conceptions and sentiments; 2010; Heise, D. R.
- Site-intercpet survey best practices; 2010; Henning, J.
- Sampling: design and analysis, 2nd Edition; 2010; Lohr, S. L.
- Research synthesis. AAPOR report on online panels; 2010; Brick, J. M., Baker, R., Blumberg, S. J., Couper, M. P., Courtright, M., Dennis, J. M., Dillman, D....
- Recruiting probability samples for a multi-mode research panel with Internet and mail components; 2010; Rao, K.
- Real ID. State of The Art Representative and Repeatable Online Samples. Behaviorally Profiled Respondents...; 2010; Gittelman, S. H., Trimarchi, E.
- Randomized response and indirect questioning techniques in surveys; 2010; Chaudhuri, A.
- Protecting and accessing data from the survey of earned doctorates: A workshop summary; 2010; Plewes, T. J.
- Paradata: a new data source from web-administered measures; 2010; Sowan, A. K., Jenkins, L. S.
- Overview of data collection methodology; 2010
- On-the-go and in-the-moment. Mobile research offers speed, immediacy; 2010; Pferdekamper, T.
- Mixed-mode surveys; 2010; Dillman, D. A., Messer, B. L.
- Measuring the group quarters population in the American Community Survey: Interim report; 2010; Marton, K., Voss, P. R.
- Measures of interobserver agreement and reliability; 2010; Shoukri, M. M.
- Machines that lean how to code open ended survey data; 2010; Esuli, A., Sebastiani, F.
- Libraries nationwide receiving ALA-APA Library Salary Survey Invitation; 2010; Grady, J.