Web Survey Bibliography
Relevance and research question:
Self-selected survey participants typically differ from the general population with regard to demographic variables that are important for voting behaviour. For example, elderly persons and persons with a low educational level are usually underrepresented. To forecast the result of elections based on such non-probability samples, it is therefore necessary to statistically adjust for selection bias. We investigated whether the validity of an election forecast can be improved using propensity scores which rely on demographic characteristics to model the propensity to participate in web surveys.
Methods and data:
In the week prior to the 2009 German federal election to the Bundestag/Lower House of the Parliament, we surveyed a large self-selected sample of potential voters. Recording several demographic variables that are presumably relevant for political preferences, we also asked the participants to indicate their voting intention in the upcoming election. We then computed predictions for the outcome of the election using propensity score adjustments based on official Mikrozensus data. We compared these predictions with the outcome of the election, and also tested whether propensity adjusted Web-based convenience samples allow for a prediction that is competitive with probability sample-based benchmark estimates.
Results:
We found that propensity score adjustments were able to considerably improve the predictive validity of an Internet-based survey of a non-random sample of potential voters, leading to a much better forecast of the election outcome. Our results thus document the usefulness of propensity scores to improve the validity of election forecasts. However, we also noted several limitations of the approach.
Added value:
Propensity score adjustments are increasingly being used to control for selection bias, but there are few opportunities to validate this approach against external criteria. Forecasting the outcome of an election is a rare but important exception, because adjusted and unadjusted predictions can be directly compared to an election’s official result.
Conference Homepage (abstract)
Web survey bibliography - Germany (361)
- Are well-selected panelists better respondents? Insights into the effect of a master screener on panel...; 2010; Irmer, C., Tress, F.
- Selection Bias in Web Surveys and the Use of Propensity Scores in Forecasting the Result of the 2009...; 2010; Musch, J., Ullrich, S., Diedenhofen, D.
- Self-administered mobile surveys: Usability and (non)participation; 2010; Scherrer, S., Bosnjak, M.
- Social desirability and self-reported health risk behaviors in web-based research: three longitudinal...; 2010; Crutzen, R., Goeritz, A.
- Security and Data Protection: Collection, Storage, Feedback in Internet Research; 2010; Thiele, O., Kaczmirek, L.
- Methoden der Online-Forschung; 2010; Welker, M., Wünsch, C.
- Online-Befragungen im Kontext von Lehrevaluationen – praktisch und unzuverlässig; 2010; Meinefeld, W.
- The Effects of Different Incentives on Data Quantity and Data Quality in Online Panels; 2010; Singh, R. K., Voggeser, B. J., Goeritz, A.
- Breakoff in Web Surveys of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES); 2010; Blumenstiel, J. E., Roßmann, J., Steinbrecher, M.
- The longitudinal effect of incentives on participation and data quality in online panels; 2010; Neumann, B. P., Goeritz, A.
- The denominator problem: Estimating MSM-specific incidence of sexually transmitted infections and prevalence...; 2009; Marcus, U., Schmidt, A. J., Kollan, C., Hamouda, O.
- Mobile surveys from a technological perspective; 2009; Pferdekämper, T., Batanic, B.
- The Effect of Phrasing Scale Items in Low-Brow or High-Brow Language on Responses; 2009; Blasius, J., Friedrichs, J.
- Continuous Measurement of Musically-Induced Emotion: A Web Experiment ; 2009; Egermann, H., Nagel, F., Altenmueller, E., Kopiez, R.
- Methodeneffekte von Web-Befragungen: Soziale Erwünschtheit vs. Soziale Entkontextualisierung; 2009; Taddicken, M.
- A Comparison of Different Survey Periods in Online Surveys of Persons with Eating Disorders and Their...; 2009; Wesemann, D., Grunwald, A., Grunwald, M.
- Are telephone Surveys a dying bread. How declining response rates can be explained and resolved; 2009; Degen, M., Obermüller, A., Schielicke, A.-M.
- Are people sharing their mobile phones? Selection probabilities in cellular telephone surveys; 2009; Fuchs, M., Busse, B.
- Accuracy of Estimates in Access Panel based Surveys; 2009; Enderle, T., Münnich, R., Bruch, C.
- Survey cooperation: response to initial and follow-up requests - Recent experiences from the recruitment...; 2009; Bartsch, S., Engel, U., Schnabel, C., Vehre, H.
- Using Mobile Phones to Administer a Working Memory Updating Task in a Survey - Cognitive Performance...; 2009; Schmiedek, F., Riediger, M., Lindenberger, U., Wagner, G. G.
- Accessibility of individuals for mobile phone surveys; 2009; Gabler, S., Häder, S.
- Mobile Phone Surveys in Germany – Response rates and response behaviour; 2009; Hader, S., Schneiderat, G.
- Interviewer voice characteristics and productivity in telephone surveys; 2009; Best, H., Bauer, G., Steinkopf, L.
- The impact of forgiving wording and question context on social desirability bias in sensitive surveys...; 2009; Naher, A.- F., Krumpal, I.
- Interactive feedback can improve accuracy of responses in web surveys; 2009; Conrad, F. G., Couper, M. P., Tourangeau, R., Galesic, M.
- The influence of the field time on data quality in list-based Web surveys; 2009; Goeritz, A., Stieger, S.
- Are Respondents Sharing their Mobile Phones? Preliminary results based on a mobile phone panel in Germany...; 2009; Fuchs, M.
- Dynamic feedback in open-ended questions: Experiments on the visual design language of Web surveys; 2009; Fuchs, M.
- Effects of monetary incentives on participation in a two-wave online survey; 2009; Bandilla, W., Haas, I.
- Representativeness of Mobile Internet Surveys - A comparative study of CAMI vs. CATI ; 2009; Maier, U., Neubarth, W., Grosser, A., Hombach, A.
- Using flash type questions – stroke of luck or curse for data quality?; 2009; Laufer, S., Klapproth, U., Noll, S.
- Generic or Project-Specific Mail? – The Influence of Invitations on Response Behaviour in the...; 2009; Schroll, S.
- An Online Study on Coping with Anxiety and Disease-Specific Internet Use in Panic Attack Sufferers; 2009; König, D., Hiebler, C., Kryspin-Exner, I.
- Volumetric Forecast based on Online Access Panels; 2009; Rodenhausen, T., Drewes, F.
- How representative are sentiments expressed in social media for the marketing target audience? A comparison...; 2009; Jarchow, C., Thomas, J.
- SNB - Social Network Barometer; 2009; Drosdow, M., Geißler, H.
- Payments via Paypal as an Incentive in Online Panels; 2009; Goeritz, A., Wolff, H.-G., Goldstein, D. G.
- Advertising Effects of Online Video Ads; 2009; Wolf, M., Schönfeldt, J.
- Online election forecasts; 2009; Faas, T., Geißler, H.
- Why Do I Use the Social Web?” Exploring the Motives of Active and Passive Users via Focus Groups...; 2009; Jers, C., Taddicken, M., Schenk, M.
- Verbal Vs Visual Response Options: Reconciling Meanings Conveyed by a Computer Aided Visual Rating Scale...; 2009; Garland, P., Cape, P.
- AGOF internet facts – increasing the response rate for onsite-surveys; 2009; Foerstel, H.
- It’s all about customer satisfaction - Advantages and limitations of online surveys in applied...; 2009; Einhorn, M., Klein-Reesink, T., Löffler, M.
- Potential Of The Mobile Internet - What You Ask Is What You Get; 2009; Neubarth, W., Maier, U., Geißlitz, A.
- Using Tag Clouds to Analyse and Visualise Results of Open Ended Questions; 2009; Melles, T., Jaron, R.
- Measuring Perceived Virtual Social Support in Online Self-Help Groups; 2009; Preiß, H.
- Personalization as Strategy to Increase Response Rates; 2009; Althoff, S.
- Integrating Mobile Surveys into digital market research: Recommendations for Mobile Panel operation...; 2009; Friedrich-Freksa, M., de Groote, Z., Metzger, G.
- Social Web and Self-Disclosure = Participation vs. Privacy? Exploring How Users Manage this Dilemma...; 2009; Taddicken, M., Jers, C., Schenk, M.